In a just world there would be no good outcome for Vladimir Putin and his band of monstrously merciless mass murderers. They had no right and no good reason for invading Ukraine, other than Putin’s paranoid narrative about NATO threats, his despotic desire to seize an independent country he couldn’t control and his nostalgic compulsion to restore old Russian empires.
The carnage is all on Putin and his cadre of compliant killers. In a just world, they would all be charged with war crimes and be held accountable.
In the real world, there will be no justice for Ukrainians because the Kremlin’s circle of evil is protected by their possession of weapons of mass destruction.
The cowardly slaughter of Ukrainians and destruction of their cities by missiles launched from afar will end when Putin decides he’s done enough damage to extort what he wants. This war will likely end with a settlement that Ukrainians won’t like and shouldn’t have to make. They can keep their freedom and independence in a shattered country if they make repugnant concessions to a bully.
Putin’s initial plan, obviously, was to blitzkrieg Ukraine with a huge military force, quickly seize control of the country and replace its democratically elected government with a puppet regime. But Ukrainians have resisted valiantly and it’s now evident that occupying Ukraine would be a nightmare for the Russians.
If you want more insight into how committed Ukrainians are to freedom and democracy, you owe it to yourself to watch the documentary, Winter on Fire, available on Netflix and other sources.
The 102-minute film uses actual footage of a three-month-long people’s revolution against an unpopular, autocratic decision by President Viktor Yanukovych to join up with Russia when Ukrainians wanted closer economic ties with the European Union. Russia offered Ukraine $15 billion and cheaper gas to scotch the EU initiative and Yanukovych liked the bribe. A 93-day street battle in the winter of 2013-2014 against brutal security forces on Independence Square in Kyiv ensued. Known as the Maidan Square Revolution, the conflict ended with Yanukovych fleeing the country and democracy prevailing.
Vladimir Putin’s response to Ukrainians favouring association with the EU over Russia was to invade Crimea in southern Ukraine later in 2014 and to arm separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, destabilizing the area. This is what pushed Ukraine to seek not only an economic relationship with the EU but also admittance to the NATO military alliance.
Putin invaded Ukraine a month ago, on February 24, to crush these initiatives. But Ukrainians have fought the invaders, showing they’re willing to pay for their freedom and independence in blood. Russian capture of the capital of Kyiv and other key centres is anything but a sure thing in the face of fierce resistance that has stymied Russia’s ground assault. So Russia has resorted to horrendous long distance missile attacks against civilian targets in an effort to snatch a victory from the jaws of possible defeat in conventional combat.
The horrible assault will end when Putin feels he’s in a position to get a result he wants. The razing of the port city of Mariupol to rubble is a callously calculated and completely inhumane strategy to strengthen his hand for a favorable settlement. By depopulating and making the city uninhabitable, Putin can go for an outcome he seeks — recognition that Crimea belongs to Russia, a land corridor on the Sea of Azov from Crimea to the Donbas area bordering Russia and a guarantee that Ukraine won’t join NATO.
Putin wants the land grab for these reasons: Crimea is strategically located between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, there are rich oil and gas deposits under the Sea of Azov, it’s a good spot for launching missiles into NATO countries and Crimea was long affiliated with Russia during the reign of the czars and Soviet Union.
Crimea was given to the Republic of Ukraine in 1954 when Nikita Khrushchev was Premier of Russia and First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. At the time, the Kremlin decided Crimea was a natural economic extension of the Ukraine, where Khrushchev had been the party boss before his rise to the top. Giving Crimea to Ukraine was also considered a sign of the fraternity between Russia and Ukraine.
Putin has said the transfer of Crimea was a mistake, especially in the context of Ukraine’s emergence as an independent nation in 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. So he ordered an invasion of Crimea in 2014 and took it back. Prior to invading Ukraine last month, Putin declared the separatist conflict zones of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas region to be independent republics, setting the stage for a bigger land grab.
By destroying Mariupol, Russia can claim not only Crimea and the coal-mining and steel-producing area of the Donbas, but the port lands in between them. With no city left and the population gone, acceptance of the annexation by Ukraine becomes more likely.
Right now, Crimea is about 650 kilometres away from Donbas and Mariupol is in the way. Crimea’s fresh water supply also comes from Ukraine and has been cut off since the 2014 invasion.
All this is to say that ceding Crimea, Donbas and the land in between is likely the price Putin will demand to stop his war on Ukraine. Ethnically, Crimea is 65 per cent Russian and only 17 per cent Ukrainian. It’s easy to say from afar that Ukraine should give up Crimea and the land corridor to stop the carnage and save the country, but only Ukrainians can decide how much they can endure and what terms of settlement are acceptable.
In a just world, there would be no settlement with an armed aggressor who murdered countless civilians and destroyed their homes and cities. In the real world, however, the off-ramp from months of devastating war and thousands and thousands of Ukrainian and Russian deaths may require coming to terms with the monsters who triggered the atrocities.
Letting Putin get away with murder and land theft is so wrong. But the truth is he needs a win to stop the merciless long distance missile attacks. Ukraine can give it to him by at least agreeing to the independence of Crimea, Donbas and the land corridor. Along with promising not to join NATO, it’s a bitter pill to swallow, for sure.
Ukraine can only make this deal — or any other — if its future security is guaranteed by international commitments, perhaps involving United Nations peacekeeping forces. Let’s hope, for the sake of Ukraine, that peace can be negotiated soon.
Map showing Crimea, Donbas and the land in between..
Be First to Comment